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Wave Jig
Forex Trading Vs. Stock Trading: What Are The Advantages? Part II
Who is Jim Martens?--Jim started with the Elliott Wave Principle in 1985. He first put that knowledge to use as a technical analyst at the COMEX Exchange, now part of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Jim came to EWI in 1993, first as a commodity and then as a currency analyst. In 2001, he joined Nexus Capital LTD., a George Soros-affiliated hedge fund, as its technical analyst; a few years later, Jim rejoined EWI as its Senior Currency Strategist.
Vadim Pokhlebkin: I've seen online ads that say, "Trading forex is easy." Do you think it's easy?
Jim Martens: Well, I'd go back to the first question you asked me. Easy? No. Easi-er than equities? Yes. In forex, there are fewer markets, so fewer choices and less news to be concerned with -- so, fewer surprises. What we want is to find the one currency that looks the strongest against others and one that looks the weakest. Found them -- now pair them together. Sounds easy, but in practice, keep in mind that when trading ANY vehicle, we are trying to predict the future, and that's a hard task. It's especially hard with individual equities, because you need a real system of how to approach first the broad market, then the sectors, then your stocks. That's why Wall Street investment houses have hundreds of equity analysis -- and maybe five technicians, the analysis who, like us at Elliott Wave International, focus on the markets' technical picture. That's why a lot more forex traders use technicals than equity traders. But winning is hard in both markets. We can only control one thing when it comes to the future: How many viable possibilities there are. Elliott wave analysis allows us to limit those down to a handful, and rank them in terms of their probability. That's a great advantage, but at the end of the day, trading is trading, so the requirements are the same: 1) Know your risks and where you are wrong before you get in the trade; 2) Know your risk appetite and don't risk beyond what you can stomach; 3) Stick to your convictions; and 4) Manage money for YOUR own needs.
VP: You forecast currencies using the Wave Principle. Why Elliott? Some forex traders watch the news and trade around the major economic report releases. Shouldn't I do the same?
JM: Yes, you should pay attention to the news! But relying solely on the news will get you into trouble. Here's an example. A couple of weeks ago, the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate. The news caught the market off-guard: The dollar soared, with a lot of volatility around 4 PM, which is typically a quiet period. But the next morning, the USD came back down again. So, if you took the post-news reaction for the new trend, you lost. But with Elliott, we knew where that dollar surge would likely be a trap; the news did not change the dollar's overall Elliott wave picture, we were very clear about that. So news and technicals can work well together -- you just have to know that news often acts as fuel, a catalyst, for a rally or decline that the technicals have already been expecting. Technicals signal to us what should happen, and the news just gets the market going -- in our direction, hopefully. So, we do follow the news, we just use it differently. As technicians, we already know based on chart patterns what the market should do. We look at what it does afterwards and how it fits into the wave pattern. Many traders shy away from taking risks around big news events, and I don't blame them, because volatility can be tremendous. But we've had some good success over the years at forecasting the markets before a big news report. If wave patterns show a clear setup in front of the news, we've often been able to use the subsequent volatility to our advantage. Now, why the Wave Principle, in general? It just fits my personality.
VP: How did you learn Elliott? How long was it before you could make confident forecasts? Where should one start with applying Elliott wave analysis to forex?
JM: About 25 years ago, in mid-eighties, I first saw Robert Prechter, EWI's president, on TV. He had quite a following and was on almost every week. I watched his forecasts come true, for the most part; that certainly gets your attention. As many people did, I order his book, "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior," read it, and that was it. The first two chapters tell you everything you need to know. It's not an easy read; you do have to stop and think. (Lots of pictures, though!) There is really not a wasted word in those 70-some pages. It took me several readings, and even now I go back and re-read them every once in a while. Elliott wave analysis is very much like a jig-saw puzzle. There is a handful of parts, and those pieces fit together; each pattern sends a message.
I started, like most people, by applying Elliott to equities. After joining EWI in 1993, I've applied it to virtually every market we cover (about sixty of them, give or take), in all time frames. So I've seen it in every situation. How long did it take to learn it? Well, I never stopped! Just the other day, I again watched one of Prechter's old videos on applying Elliott wave in practice. And I take the same approach with my subscribers. (Ed. -- Jim Martens is the editor of EWI's intensive Currency Specialty Service.) Every Friday, I record a 5-minute video where I not only explain our forecasts but also include an educational component, often about the basics. Learning the basics well will help you a lot. So, if you're a forex trader interested in Elliott, you start with Bob's book, you watch my videos, and you watch your own charts. That also brings up the question of how to best use my Currency service. Well, over the years, I've seen that the most successful folks are not those who blindly follow our forecasts -- although some have done that successfully, too. Those who are most successful do their homework, by using a different analysis method or by doing their own Elliott. They think for themselves, and when they put on a trade, it's because they have their own conclusions. Once they've done that, then they look to see what my Currency service is suggesting.
If we agree on the trend, they have greater confidence. If we disagree, then the real work begins. Why do we disagree? What price levels need to break to make their wave interpretations work and mine fail, and vice versa? That brings up another important point. Some say it's confusing that you may sometimes have a couple of different Elliott wave interpretations of the same price move. But the real question is, do they point in the same direction? If so, that's not confusing, that's comforting; it's a confirmation. So those subscribers who do their own Elliott, as long as their wave counts and mine give at least a minimum common price target and limit the risk, they can go ahead and act anyway. We'll decide later which wave count is right. Many people forget that; it's a classic case of missing the forest behind the trees. (Is that how that saying goes?) They lose sight of the trend over arguing about wave interpretations. Sometimes, it doesn't really matter!
The market will eventually decide who is right or wrong -- but if the trend is clear, go with it. That's how I use the Wave Principle.
About the Author
Ekanem Uwemedimoh
http://stocksonyou.blogspot.com/
What is the best bait to use to catch 3-5 foot sharks off the coast of Santa barbara?
So far ive been using mackerel but I didn't get a bite for two hours but then I changed my mind about live bait because everyone there was using a rubber jig. Which bait would be the best and what time and wave height should I go fishing at also does the moon matter in fishing and if it does what kind of moon thanks for all the answers (ps. Their thresher leopard and tiger sharks and I'm fishing off Santa Barbara also would it work good on halibut too because I'm going for both Ty
And thanks for all the answers I just need a little more help from all of you I can det live bait should I just get a live mackerel,perch,or jacksmelt should I cut them up or throw them whole and should I put scent on them or not and they are about 6-12 inches perch are smaller though please reply as soon as possible I need this info till monday Ty
I imagine that you're fishing from a pier and not a boat. To catch Sharks that size you're going to have to get into deeper waters. Sharks that size don't come in that close to shore normally. There may be a Great White Shark if there's seals in the waters close by, (we have some off Stinson Beach right now) be cause of the seal population, but that's short lived and should be gone later today or at least by the end of the weekend. Rubber jigs are a waste of time for Sharks. Halibut are lazy fish, but it may be possible to hook one. The best baits are going to be live Anchovy for Halibut and Sharks. However, for a Halibut, drifting over them works best or trolling a "Hula Skirt" rig over the flats 6-8 inches above the bottom will produce fish. On a pier, it's whatever the tides push into the area.
To catch a Tiger Shark in CA would be a fluke. Our waters are just too cold for them. Tigers need the warmer tropical waters to survive. We do have Leopard Sharks, Sand Sharks, and Six Gill Sharks, but not Tigers.
I have fished all over the world for many species and also sharks, so I have some experience with this.
HEAT WAVE JIG BASS .avi